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Vol. I · No. 4 Monday, June 15, 2026 · Evening Edition Price: Free

SpaceX gains 6% in premarket after record debut. Here's what's driving the valuation debate

SpaceX shares rose approximately 6% in premarket trading on Monday, hovering around the $170 mark following its record-breaking debut on the Nasdaq last week. The company’s initial public offering (IPO) was the largest in history, with the stock closing at $161 on Friday, a 19% jump from its $135 offer price. This debut pushed SpaceX’s market capitalization above $2 trillion, making it more valuable than Tesla and making founder Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire. The company’s high valuation has sparked significant debate among analysts. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens described the stock as “overvalued,” stating the firm values SpaceX at $63 per share and estimating only a 7% chance of it hitting a “moonshot” scenario of $154 per share. Similarly, CFRA initiated coverage with a “sell” rating and a 12-month price target of $115, citing “extremely ambitious growth strategy, elevated valuation expectations, and significant capital intensity.” CFRA noted that SpaceX’s capital expenditures for the three months ended March totaled $10.1 billion, compared to $4.1 billion in the same period last year, with the majority spent on artificial intelligence. Other analysts remain more optimistic. New Street Research initiated coverage with a $165 price target. While Matthew Maley of Miller Tabak agreed the IPO was overvalued, he suggested long-term investors could do well. Steve Westly of The Westly Group noted that while retail investors bought $100 billion in shares, the company must deliver results quickly to avoid potential panic if growth projections are missed. Looking ahead, TD Securities’ Peter Haynes noted that SpaceX’s public debut is only a small part of its timeline. He highlighted upcoming index rebalancings for the Nasdaq 100 and other benchmarks this summer. However, the S&P 500 Index Committee announced earlier this month that SpaceX will not be fast-tracked into that index and must trade for at least one year to become eligible.

Sources

CNBC · MarketWatch · Yahoo Finance